Yoon’s gone. Much sooner than I predicted in my previous newsletter. I was more than happy to be proven wrong here, but it’s worth examining what led to this development.
With the ever-deteriorating quality of its talent, South Korean politics these days is mainly driven by politicians shooting themselves in the foot. Yoon’s speech on Thursday—so abrupt that it drove even a Yoon ally to the brink of profanity—was another example.
His speech, however, also offers a preview of his defense strategy: he’ll likely argue that the president has the authority to declare martial law, that he followed the required procedure, and that he had no intention of preventing lawmakers from entering the National Assembly.
Suspending the deluded president’s authority will bring greater stability to national governance. However, putting a decisive end to Yoon’s presidency will be a protracted fight. I already mentioned the vacancies on the Constitutional Court that require presidential authorization for appointments. Plus, there’s a provision that could halt the impeachment proceedings if a criminal case on the same charge is pending.
One theory suggests that Lee, who has been fighting on little too many judicial fronts, could be found guilty before the next election if Yoon’s impeachment proceedings drag on. While Lee’s removal from the roster wouldn’t affect much which party wins the next presidential election, it would certainly alter the dynamics within both parties.
And remember the main driver of Korean politics I mentioned? The Minjoo Party’s biggest enemy right now is itself.
The Minjoo Party’s priority should be demonstrating to voters that they are reliable and responsible actors in statecraft. However, there are already signs they’re losing focus.
Party leader Lee Jae-myung stated Sunday that they would not seek impeachment of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, now the acting president, “for now,” while proposing a consultative body between parliament and administration to stabilize state affairs. (Minjoo had criticized an almost identical idea as unconstitutional when the ruling party suggested it just last week.)
As the new ruling party floor leader swiftly rejected this idea, Minjoo might pursue Han’s impeachment if dissatisfied with his governance as it has previously criticized Han as an “accomplice” to Yoon’s alleged treason. However, impeaching the acting president would be a grave misstep, leaving the public with the lasting impression that Lee would do anything to seize power—even if it means deepening political chaos.
Lee should know better. Though I personally consider him unfit for the presidency, he’s a street-smart politician capable of assuming whatever role he deems advantageous. His Sunday press conference demonstrated his ability to play the role of peacemaker.
Of course, the longevity of this new persona remains uncertain. Will he, for instance, maintain his legal strategy straight out of Trump’s playbook—dragging out court procedures as long as possible—while simultaneously calling for “swift” proceedings in Yoon’s impeachment?
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