So the impeachment motion failed to carry in the National Assembly last Saturday.
Minjoo pulled off nice theatrics at its introduction: the Floor Leader Park Chan-dae called out every PPP lawmaker by name, begging them to come back and cast a vote to the motion, with fellow lawmakers standing up and repeating Park’s calls.
To my surprise, a handful of PPP lawmakers showed up.
While the small drama offered some hope for the future of the country’s democracy, the whole event felt like a Dead Poets Society beginning with O Captain! My Captain! scene.
Minjoo has been much better than conservatives in political theatrics, but this time they made a grave error: they burned through their dramatic highpoint too soon.
Park’s impeachment: a quick rewind to 2016
The ousting of Park Geun-hye required several months of escalating revelations and protests. JTBC’s scoop on the discarded tablet in October 2016 is widely understood as the inflection point, after which nationwide protests followed.
Unlike the current leadership, the Minjoo leadership at the time was reluctant to respond to public’s call for impeachment. Instead, they demanded Park should hand over her power to a prime minister. (Which sounds similar to what the ruling party leader Han Dong-hoon offered on Sunday.)
Why were they reluctant to impeach Park? From my previous newsletter:
South Korea is a TSMC of impeaching the head of state: its state-of-the-art politics have impeached two Presidents—Roh Moo-hyun (dismissed) and Park Geun-hye (you know how it ended), and both the cases teach a lesson.
Politicians do have a memory. The problem is that their memory span is often shorter than necessary. You may be surprised to learn that, back then, the Minjoo lawmakers were reluctant until the very last minute to push the impeachment of Park Geun-hye forward.
Because they did have a memory of what happened after they impeached Roh. Minjoo and the conservatives faced a crushing defeat in the general election, while Roh’s splinter party (from Minjoo) won a majority in the parliament.
It wouldn’t be so hard to guess why Minjoo is hasting the impeachment this time.
Wrong cues from history
We sometimes take wrong cues from history. When it comes to politics, however, the frequency seems to multiply. Simply placing the climax at the beginning of a show won’t lead to a satisfying ending any sooner.
The impeachment bill itself tells a lot about what Minjoo was thinking. It was written in such a haste that its appendix of evidence list is paper-thin and some of its arguments already proven false.1
And its words sound too partisan to garner nationwide support:
Furthermore, under the pretext of so-called ‘value diplomacy,’ while disregarding geopolitical balance, [President Yoon] has pursued policies that antagonize North Korea, China, and Russia, insisted on a peculiar Japan-centric diplomatic policy, and appointed Japan-leaning personnel to key government positions. Through these actions, [President Yoon] isolated the country from Northeast Asia, triggered crisis of war, and abandoned his duty to protect national security and citizens.
What percentage of the nation did they think would support this statement? Or was it supposed to be presented to a SCO or BRI summit?
The PPP also took wrong cues from history. They’ve seen what happened to their predecessors who actively supported the impeachment of Park. For them, impeaching Yoon is the death knell for their political life. And they expect if they manage to hold on for a while, a possible conviction of Lee Jae-myung could turn things around.
What they don’t realize is that Minjoo could easily find an alternative and win even if Lee is found guilty, and simply buying time wouldn’t do any good for them. The lawmakers may be fixated to the next general election in 2028, but there is local elections coming in 2026. If they screw this, the PPP will fade into oblivion.
War of position awaits?
With its premature attempt for consummation failed, what’s the next step for Minjoo? They vowed to keep submitting the bill until it carries in the National Assembly, and they’re already aiming for another vote next Saturday. In other words, they’re hosting the IMPEACHFEST 2024 every Saturday.
But the drama will inevitably diminish. Demonizing the ruling party lawmakers who failed to cast a vote will never be enough to get them back to the main chamber.
More dissenters (with more evidence) may emerge from the administration as the investigation proceed. But discord over jurisdiction could hamper the investigation: while prosecutors and the police are running their own probes, the anti-corruption investigation office asked them to step aside. (Wonder who’s to blame for this madness?)
Minjoo is in haste because the impeachment will be the get-out-of-jail-free card for its leader Lee Jae-myung, and the PPP lawmakers mounted last-ditch resistance because Lee’s premature rise to power would lead to their defeat in the next election.
I’m afraid we’re more likely to witness a slow and less dramatic “war of position” over how to oust the deluded president and safeguard the democratic order. Unless there’s a seismic shift in either side of the equation, or someone brings about a breakthrough through compromise, which is becoming rarer in the age of politics without politics.
- For example, it argues that the cabinet meeting necessary for declaring martial law didn’t take place, but it was revealed later that the meeting took place. ↩︎
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