Yoon and Lee’s fates sealed: impeachment and the next election

Little is known about what’s happening inside the Constitutional Court. As speculation fills this information void, chaos ensues. Some claim the court is deliberately delaying the process. Others suggest the judges will now feel free to rule against Yoon’s impeachment since Minjoo leader Lee Jae-myung has been acquitted of violating election law.

The nation’s contradictions were given a contrast boost. Self-styled “conservatives” now champion martial law in the name of defending liberal democracy. Meanwhile, those who fought for democracy against military dictatorship now call for the closure of the Constitutional Court—one of the very institutions born from the country’s democratization—because it doesn’t readily deliver the ruling they want.

With such noise, trying to dissect the situation too closely may not help. Let’s step back and view the forest rather than the trees.

The fundamental question is whether to keep a president who attempted to overthrow the republic in a coup. The court’s decision will have lasting effects not just on the current president but on future presidents as well.

This is why I remain confident that the court will uphold Mr Yoon’s impeachment.

Who, then, will be the next president? That’s what I attempted to answer when invited to Korean Politics Debrief last month.

Jang-Ho, the host, wondered if the ruling party had any chance—not an unreasonable question since they had been enjoying a bump in the polls since earlier this year.

Following current events too closely tends to lead to over-interpretation of minor fluctuations. The overarching narrative remains that the ruling party’s president allegedly tried to overthrow the republic. It’s difficult to imagine the ruling party winning this uphill battle.

This is why I’m convinced Minjoo will win the next election. When speaking with Jang-Ho, the question was more about whether Lee could secure his party’s nomination.

Facing multi-pronged legal battles, Lee has been employing Trump’s playbook effectively, but the appeal case regarding election law violations was too imminent to be postponed beyond the potential election. Had he been found guilty again, his party leadership could have been jeopardized.

However, he prevailed. More serious cases are still pending against him, but none seem likely to drag down Mr Lee armed with the Trump legal playbook.

This is why I’m confident Lee Jae-myung will be the next President of the Republic of Korea.

What might the Lee administration look like? That will be the topic of my next newsletter.